Ku isaha ya saa kumi z'umugoroba wa Beijing, Perezida w'Uburusiya Vladimir Putin yavuze ko yahisemo kugaba igitero kidasanzwe mu karere ka Donbas mu burasirazuba bwa Ukraine.Ako kanya, urusaku rw'ibisasu rwumvikanye mu gace k'ikibuga cy'indege cya Boryspil i Kiev, umurwa mukuru wa Ukraine, i Kyiv, Odessa, Kharkov, Kramatorsk na Berdyansk, ibyo bikaba byerekana ibihugu by'Uburusiya n'Uburayi mu karere k'Uburayi.Amakimbirane hagati y’ibihugu byombi yakajije umurego mu buryo bwose.Ukraine yose iri mu ntambara.
Kugeza igihe cyo gutangaza amakuru, igipimo cy’ibiciro bya gaze y’iburayi TTF yazamutse igera ku ma euro 114 kuri MWh.Ni izihe mpinduka zimbitse zizagaragara mu Burusiya na Ukraine bizana ubucuruzi bw’ingufu zisukuye mu gihugu ndetse no hanze yarwo, kandi bizagira izihe ngaruka ku muvuduko wo gusimbuza ingufu gakondo mu nganda zikoresha amashanyarazi n’umuyaga?Kugeza ubu, biteganijwe ko ibiciro fatizo byibicuruzwa bimwe na bimwe bifotora bizamuka, kandi n’umuyaga n’izuba mu Burayi n’ahandi bizakomeza kwihuta.
Ibiciro bya gaze yihariye birashobora kuzamuka, ubushobozi bwo kohereza burakomeye kandi ibiciro bikomeza kuba hejuru
Mubyukuri, Ukraine niyo soko ya gaze zidasanzwe zogukora inganda za semiconductor kwisi yose, kubwibyo rero nyuma yaya makimbirane bizagira ingaruka ku ibura rya gaze zidasanzwe za elegitoronike zikoreshwa mu gice cya kabiri.Ibicuruzwa bya Semiconductor nabyo ni ibikoresho byingenzi kubikoresho byo gufotora bifotora nka inverter.Ese hazabaho urukurikirane rw'ibisubizo mugihe kizaza?
Ukraine ifite umubare munini w’amasoko ya gaze ya neon, xenon, na krypton, kandi amakimbirane azatuma ibikoresho bimwe na bimwe bidasanzwe bitanga gaze bidashoboka cyangwa byangiritse.
Benshi mu bakora inganda za semiconductor bavuze ko kubera ko imyuka yihariye iboneka mu bihugu byinshi, harimo na Ukraine, ntihabura ibicuruzwa mu gihe gito.Umuyobozi mukuru wa Micron, Melotta, mu kiganiro cyihariye yagiranye na Bloomberg News yavuze ko igice cya gaze nziza gituruka muri Ukraine, ariko hateguwe ibarura rinini, kandi icy'ingenzi ni uko iyi sosiyete ifite amasoko menshi yo gutanga, harimo Amerika, Umuryango w’ubumwe bw’ibihugu by’Uburayi na Aziya.Yizera ko iyi sosiyete ikomeje gukurikirana neza uko ibintu bimeze kandi yizera ko izoroha.SK Hynix yanagaragaje ko yabonye ibarura rinini rya gaze ya inert, bityo rero nta mpamvu yo guhangayika cyane.Ariko mugihe ibyifuzo bishobora guhuza hafi nibitangwa, ntawakwirinda ko gaze nziza zimwe na zimwe zizabona izamuka ryibiciro.Igiciro cya neon, ibicuruzwa, cyazamutse nyuma y’amakimbirane yabaye hagati y’Uburusiya na Ukraine mu 2014, ubwo igiciro cyari $ 3.500 kuri metero kibe, cyikubye inshuro zirenga 10 ugereranije na mbere.
Kubera ko amakimbirane yiyongera hagati y’ibihugu byombi, igiciro cya zahabu cyazamutse cyane.Ibikoresho nyamukuru byibicuruzwa bisanzwe bya paste bikoreshwa mungufu zizuba ni ifu ya silver, ifitanye isano nigiciro cya feza i Londres.Nta makuru y’izamuka rishingiye ku biciro bya feza kugeza ubu.Kubwibyo, mugihe gito, nta kimenyetso cyibiciro bya paste byazamutse.
Ni izihe ngaruka ibyabaye mu Burusiya na Ukraine bizagira ku gutwara ibintu, cyane cyane ku bicuruzwa bishya bitanga ingufu?
Abakurikiranira hafi Fang bavuga ko ibiciro by'imizigo yo mu nyanja bizakomeza kuba hejuru.Mu myaka ibiri ishize, igiciro cyazamutseho inshuro 4, 5 cyangwa zirenga.Izamuka ry’ibiciro bya peteroli rishobora kugira ingaruka ku izamuka ry’ibiciro bya mazutu, ibikoresho fatizo byo gutwara ibintu, ariko nubwo nyir'ubwato yongera igiciro kuri ibi, ntabwo bizagira ingaruka ku giciro cyoherezwa kiri hejuru.Iterambere ntirizaba ryinshi.Nyamara, igipimo cyibiciro cyo kohereza ibicuruzwa ntikizagabanuka mugihe gito, ubushobozi bwo kohereza muri rusange buzakomeza gushimangirwa, kandi urwego rwohereza ibicuruzwa ruzaba rumeze nabi.Ku ruhande rumwe, kubera ihinduka ry’imiterere ya Omicron, icyorezo mu bihugu byinshi by’Uburayi cyakomeje gukwirakwira, kandi ikusanyirizo ry’imanza zimaze gusuzumwa ryatumye ibintu byoherezwa mu mahanga biri ku rwego rwo hejuru, kandi isoko ryo kohereza byari byiza cyane.Mu rwego rwo guhangana n’intambara zaho, Uburayi bushobora kongera ububiko bwibikoresho, bityo bigatuma muri rusange ibirometero toni-nautical byiyongera.Muri rusange, ubushobozi bwa kontineri buzaba bwinshi mugihe gito, kandi amahirwe yo kugabanuka kwibiciro byinyanja ntabwo ari menshi, kandi birashoboka cyane ko byagumaho cyangwa bikiyongera gato.
Imbaraga z'umuyaga Photovoltaque, nibindi, guhindura ingufu zisi zishobora kwihuta
Intangiriro yiyi ntambara y’ibanze hagati y’Uburusiya na Ukraine izagira ingaruka nziza ku kwihutisha ingufu nshya zo gusimbuza ingufu gakondo.Umunsi wose uyumunsi, ububiko bushya bwingufu bwerekanye kwiyongera.Itsinda rya Zhongli, Sungrow, Trina Solar, Risen Energy, Foster, JinkoSolar, JA Technology, LONGi, GoodWe, Chint Electric, Zhonghuan, na Jolywood byose byazamutse hafi.PV 50ETF yungutse 1.53%.
Ibiciro bya gaze bisanzwe byazamutse vuba aha.Iyi ntabwo ari inkuru nziza ku karere k'Uburayi, aho ibiciro bya gaze gasanzwe byazamutse hafi inshuro enye mu mwaka ushize.Kugeza ubu, kimwe cya gatatu cya gaze karemano i Burayi ikomoka kuri gaze karemano, kandi geopolitike yongeye gukemura ikibazo cyo gutanga.Kuva saa yine z'ijoro uyu munsi, igipimo cy’ibiciro bya gaze ya gazi ya TTF yo mu Buholandi cyazamutse ku nshuro ya kane yikurikiranya, kizamuka kugera kuri 41% mu munsi umwe.Perezida wa Amerika, Joe Biden, yavuze kandi ko azafata izindi ngamba zo guhana Uburusiya.Ibihano byose bibuza Uburusiya kubona amadovize byazamura amasoko ya peteroli, gaze n’ibicuruzwa nkibyuma n’ibihingwa.
Ubusanzwe gaze gasanzwe i Burayi iragenda cyane, igera kuri 90%.Kubwibyo, muri iki gihe igihe igiciro cya gaze gasanzwe kizamutse, abakoresha inganda, ingufu n’abashyushya benshi bamenyereye gukoresha gaze karemano bazashaka inzira zizewe zo gukemura ibyo bakeneye.Gusimbuza ingufu nshya nkingufu zizuba bizihuta.
Wood Mackenzie yerekanye ko hamwe n’iyongera ry’umusaruro w’amashanyarazi uhindagurika, Uburayi bufite uburyo bune bwo kuringaniza ibikorwa bya gride: pompe hydro, amashanyarazi asanzwe y’amashanyarazi.Rory McCarthy, umusesenguzi mukuru w’iki kigo, yagize ati: "Kuri sisitemu y’amashanyarazi agezweho, inganda za gaze karemano zishobora kugera ku mashanyarazi yuzuye mu minota ibiri, kandi zishobora gukora ku mutwaro igice cyongerewe imbaraga kandi zishobora gutanga ingufu mu gihe cy’ibihe bitagira umupaka.Ikibanza ni ugutanga gaze gasanzwe. ”
Ariko mu 2030, kubika ingufu za batiri bizarenga hejuru ya gaze gasanzwe nkuburyo buhendutse bwo kuringaniza imiyoboro yuburayi.Ubushobozi bwo kubika ingufu mu nzego zose z’Uburayi biteganijwe ko buziyongera kuva kuri 3GW iriho ubu (usibye hydro pompi) kugeza kuri 26GW muri 2030 na 89GW muri 2040. McCarthy yavuze ko mu 2040, Uburayi bushobora kugira 320GWh y’ububiko bw’ingufu ziboneka kugira ngo buringanize sisitemu y’amashanyarazi. .Byinshi muribyo bizaturuka kubakoresha kuruhande rwa sisitemu yo kubika ingufu.McCarthy yagize ati: "Ibiciro by’amashanyarazi n’amavuta n’amakara nabyo bizazamuka, kandi politiki y’ibyuka bihumanya ikirere izageraho igere kuri decarbonisation ya serivisi zose z’isoko ry’amashanyarazi."
Ikigo cy’isesengura Bloomberg New Energy Finance cyigeze gusohora raporo y’ubushakashatsi, cyerekanye ko: Muri Amerika, kubera ko amashanyarazi akomoka ku mirasire y’izuba akomeje gukwirakwira no kurya igihe cyo gukora cy’inganda zikomoka kuri gaze gasanzwe, amashanyarazi asanzwe asabwa gutangira kandi funga kenshi.Ibi byongera amafaranga yo gukora bitewe nibisabwa na lisansi no kwambara.
Kugeza ubu, mugihe igiciro cya gaze gasanzwe ari kinini cyane, abashoramari bazarushaho gushishoza muguhitamo uburyo bwo gusimbuza uburyo bushya bwo kubyaza ingufu amashanyarazi kugirango birinde ikibazo cyibi bikoresho bihendutse.
Birumvikana ko abatumiza gaze gasanzwe badashaka kubona iki kibazo gikomeje.Bazashakisha kandi uburyo bwo gutuma ibiciro bya gaze birenze hejuru bisekeje, bitabaye ibyo kohereza gaze gasanzwe bizaba ikibazo mugihe ikibazo cyo guta inganda ningufu zimaze gushingwa.
Ugereranije n’icyiciro cya mbere cy’amakimbirane y’Uburusiya na Ukraine mu 2014 (19 Mutarama 2014 kugeza ku ya 20 Werurwe 2014), mu bikorwa by’ibyiciro by’imitungo minini, ibiciro by’ibicuruzwa byazamutse cyane, bigera kuri 7,6%.Igiciro cya peteroli yazamutseho 4.2%, naho igiciro cya zahabu cyazamutseho 6.1% (biva muri Haitong Securities.) Igiciro kinini cy’amavuta ya peteroli kizakomeza kandi gukoresha ibinyabiziga byamashanyarazi, imodoka zisukuye, nibindi byingenzi.
Ku bijyanye n’iterambere ry’ejo hazaza h’ingufu nshya, cyane cyane inganda zifotora, uyu mwaka uzakomeza gutera imbere.Ku ya 23 Gashyantare, impande zombi zavuze ko ubushobozi bushya bwo gufotora bushya mu 2022 bushobora kwiyongera kugera kuri 75GW, ni ukuvuga 75-90GW.Agaciro kagereranijwe namakuru y’ikigo cy’igihugu gishinzwe ingufu - ubushobozi bushya bw’amafoto y’igihugu mu 2021 buzaba bugera kuri 55GW, umwaka ushize wiyongereyeho 36% -64%.Muri icyo gihe, byagereranijwe ko kuva 2022 kugeza 2025, igihugu cyanjye ngarukamwaka gishya cy’amashanyarazi kizashyirwa kuri 83-99GW.Dukurikije imibare yaturutse muri Minisiteri y’inganda n’ikoranabuhanga mu itumanaho, mu 2021, igihugu cyanjye cy’amafoto y’amashanyarazi ya polysilicon, wafer wa silicon, selile, na modul kizagera kuri toni 505.000, 227GW, 198GW, na 182GW, byiyongereyeho 27.5%, 40.6%, 46.9%, na 46.1% umwaka-ku-mwaka.Ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga buri mwaka byarengeje miliyari 28.4 z'amadolari y'Amerika.
Raporo iheruka gukorwa y’ubushakashatsi bwakozwe n’ishoramari rya CITIC, ishoramari ry’imbere mu gihugu muri Mutarama 2022 ryarenze ibyari byitezwe, kandi ubushobozi bushya bwo gufotora amashanyarazi mu gihugu bwarenze 7GW, umwaka ushize bwiyongera 200%.Muri byo, ubushobozi bushya bwashyizweho bwo gukwirakwiza amafoto y’amashanyarazi bwari 4.5GW, umwaka ushize wiyongereyeho 250%;ubushobozi bushya bwashyizweho bwa fotokolotike yibanze bwari 2.5GW, umwaka-ku mwaka kwiyongera 150%.Ibikoresho byo hejuru bya silicon, wafer ya silicon, bateri zo hepfo, modules, kimwe na inverter hamwe nibikoresho bifasha, amahuza yose murwego rwinganda muri rusange yuzuyemo ibicuruzwa, kandi igipimo cyibikorwa ntikigabanuka ahubwo kirazamuka.Uyu mwaka gakondo itari iy'umwaka irashobora kuba "idakomeye".
Twanditse ibi, turizera ko abaturage ba Ukraine bashobora kwikingira ndetse nimiryango yabo, kumara uyu mwanya udasanzwe amahoro, no kugaruka cyangwa kubona urugo rwamahoro vuba bishoboka.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Werurwe-12-2022